The U.S. Census Bureau has released some interesting statistics. In its 2017 National Population Projections report, the bureau said we are rapidly approaching several critical demographic turning points.
Jonathan Vespa is a demographer with the U.S. Census Bureau. He said by 2030 all of the baby boomers will be older than 65 and by 2035 the U.S. will have 78 million people age 65 and older. That will compare to 76.4 million under the age of 18.
In other words, one in five of us will be of retirement age. “The aging of baby boomers means that within just a couple decades, older people are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history,” he said.
The Census Bureau report calls the 2030s a transformative decade and transformative on a bunch of fronts. That starts with the population growing at a slower rate and goes to a population that has aged considerably and has become more racially and ethnically diverse.
International migration will be the main driver of population growth by 2030. Natural citizen births are expected to be close to four-times larger than net migration by 2030. However, the rising number of deaths will still make international migration the largest agent of population growth.
Somewhere between 2020 and 2050 deaths will rise substantially as baby boomers die off. As others in the population age, their deaths will increase, too. Again, this leads to international migration being the number-one cause of population growth.
The nation is going to be pretty packed with people by 2060. U.S. Census Bureau estimates are it will grow by 78 million. That will take us from today’s around 326 million to 404 million.
Look for us to cross the 400 million threshold on 2058.
Until 2030 the U.S. will grow by 2.3 million a year. From 2030 to 2040 it will have slowed to 1.8 million and will fall to 1.5 million a year between 2040 and 2060.
Working and careers is part of the report. The ratio of older adults to working-age adults will rise. By 2020 we’ll see just 3 1/2 working adults for every person of retirement age. By 2060 that number drops by one to 2 1/2.
Along with those numbers is an estimate of the median age. It will grow from today’s age 38 to 43 by 2060.
Ethnic groups are in the study as well. The non-Hispanic-White population will shrink in the coming decades. It will go from 2020’s estimate of 199 million to 179 million in 2060. The future number drops as the population grows. Falling birth rates and a growing number of deaths among whites will be the cause.
Hispanics — no matter what nation of origin — will see heavy population growth. Their numbers will grow from 253 million to 275 million between 2020 and 2060.
By 2020 less than half the children born will be white or non-Hispanic. Children of two or more races will increase from 5.3% today to 11.3% in 2060.
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